Western Cape drought warning as wheat farmers raise concerns

Some parts of the Western Cape should expect severe drought conditions during October, with small patches of extreme drought conditions, according to the latest status update from the National Joint Drought Coordinating Committee. 

 “Given below-normal rainfall over especially the southern parts of the winter rainfall region since August, drought is developing over these areas at the short to medium timescales,” the update says.  

Winter rainfall areas in the Eastern Cape would be similarly affected. 

The Western Cape drought outlook is less severe when applying a longer 12-month data timescale due to heavy winter rains last year and since early June this year. 

The drought warning coincides with concerns from Western Cape wheat farmers about low yields due to the low rainfall in recent months. Some farmers have sent livestock to graze wheat fields that aren’t worth harvesting, according to a report in Farmers’ Weekly.

“I’m really worried about the winter rainfall region,” commented Dirk Strydom, Nampo managing director. “The wheat yields aren’t there, prices aren’t there, and so margins are very tight.” 

“Global wheat prices are low, and we have already reached import parity in South Africa. It is unlikely that the local prices will increase,” Strydom told Farmer’s Weekly. 

The southern Lowveld, over eastern to south-eastern Mpumalanga, is the only other part of the country currently impacted by short- to medium-term drought, according to SPI and cumulative vegetation data, the report says.  

The NJDCC’s assessment, finalised at the end of September, is based on Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) data from the past six months. The SPI is a valuable national drought monitoring tool.