SA Urged to Seize US Midterm Shift to Avert Jan 2027 AGOA Exclusion
Democratic Party success in the US mid-term elections this week presents an opportunity for South Africa to avert exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
That's the view of Terry Gale, the vice-chair of Cape Chamber's Product Market Business Environment Portfolio Committee.
Gale has called on the SA government to urgently dispatch a senior diplomatic and trade mission to Washington "carrying a clear presidential mandate and supported by credible representatives of business, organised labour and the Government of National Unity."
"It should engage the White House, the US Trade Representative, the State Department, congressional leaders from both parties, and American businesses with a direct interest in the relationship," Gale said.
Such a move could potentially reverse Trump's decision earlier this week to exclude SA from AGOA as from 1 January 2027, while signaling the start of a more constructive relationship between the two trading partners, Gale said.
"There is also a critical timing constraint: the incoming Congress takes office on 3 January 2027, while South Africa’s exclusion is scheduled for 1 January. Preventing an interruption in (AGOA) benefits therefore requires action before the new congressional majorities assume office. Waiting for January would be a serious strategic mistake," Gale said.
"The election has opened a political opportunity. Whether that opportunity protects South African jobs will depend on the speed, credibility and substance of our diplomatic response."
Historically, Washington's approach to Pretoria has found its strongest advocates within the Democratic Party. Democratic lawmakers and Senate leaders have traditionally championed closer bilateral ties, viewing South Africa as more of an ally than an adversary on the continent, and maintaining a more constructive stance on the US-South Africa trade relationship.
AGOA was a cornerstone of this partnership, and it first took shape and was significantly expanded under successive Democratic administrations, notably being reauthorised for a ten-year term during the Obama presidency in 2015. The original AGOA legislation was enacted under Democratic President Bill Clinton in May 2000.
In stark contrast, bilateral relations have soured significantly during Donald Trump’s administration, culminating in the recent move to strip South Africa of its beneficiary status. With Democrats regaining control of both the House and the Senate in this week's mid-terms, the political landscape in Washington shifts markedly, offering Pretoria a more sympathetic congressional audience to help challenge or navigate the impending trade exclusion.
Other trade stakeholders this week voiced similar sentiments about the possibility of more favourable bilateral relations with Trump on the back foot after the mid-terms.
A senior economist said the election result "also exposes the idiocy and short-sightedness of the SA right wing appeal to White House".
Speaking shortly after the mid-term results became clear, SA International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola told News24 the Democrat victory represented an opportunity for more constructive engagement.
Lamola singled out the possibility of engaging with the US Congress House Committee on Foreign Affairs which oversees legislation and investigations relating to US foreign policy.