SA Presidents ranked in terms of performance - results are sobering
Politicians rise or fall depending upon the level of their support – the more votes, the higher the rise. Without votes they disappear into obscurity.
A better measure of their success, of course, should be their ability to keep their promises, or do what they were elected to do. Improving the lives of their electorate is surely a politician's most important job.
In this regard, business news service Moneyweb has put South African presidents to the test, by ranking them in terms of their performance – specifically their performance at creating jobs and managing the economy.
The results are sobering.
Thabo Mbeki stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of economic growth, his legacy helped along by a commodities boom and massive infrastructure spending associated with the 2010 Soccer World Cup. Mbeki's social progress record -- -delivering houses, schools and electricity – is surpassed only by his predecessor Nelson Mandela.
Under Mbeki's watch economic growth reached 5,6% and unemployment declined to around 23%.
By contrast Presidents Zuma and Ramaphosa have struggled, to say the least.
Moneyweb is forthright in their assessment of Zuma's performance: “ The Zuma era was the era of state capture, the Guptas, massive bailouts for looted state-owned companies, and general disregard for any kind of accountability and fiscal discipline.”
Ouch.
Of concern is that some worrying metrics entrenched during the Zuma years have not improved much under Ramaphosa, who had the unenviable task of navigating the Covid-19 pandemic and associated economic upheaval. Debt to GDP ratio is hovering at around 76%, having been as low as 27,3% during the Mbeki era. In Ramaphosa's defence, he inherited a fiscal mess and has spent much of his time plugging gaping holes not of his making, notably in state-owned enterprises.
However some perilous financial indicators can not be so easily explained away, such as the pitiable current level of foreign direct investment, an accurate barometer of international confidence in a country's economic potential. Despite the initial flush of investor optimism, the Ramaphosa years have largely not inspired confidence.
This is hardly surprising given the focus on market-unfriendly legislation, notably the National Health Insurance and Employment Equity Amendment Acts.
Moneyweb rounds off its assessment with a graph of the rand-dollar exchange rate over the past 30 years, an ascending topography that leaves us stranded near the summit of a dizzying peak. The gentle foothills of the Mandela years seem far away.
It's in the nature of financial indicators to rise and fall, and one can never be sure of what lies around the corner. Today's bad graph could look worse tomorrow. Conversely, negative figures could well improve. As Moneyweb points out, the load shedding graph has improved dramatically under Ramaphosa's watch. The increasing size of the black middle class is another pleasing metric relative to the early years of democracy.
In the fullness of time politicians know they will be judged by the arc of their performance rather than their popularity.
John Lawson
CEO of the Cape Chamber of Commerce and Industry