SA has R1,3-trillion of untapped exports – RMB report

South Africa has by far the most untapped export potential of any African country – about R1,3-trillion, or 20% of the country’s current Gross Domestic Product, according to the latest RMB ‘Where to Invest in Africa’ Report. 

The vast majority of that untapped export value (R1,18-trillion) lies outside the United States, suggesting the country has significant scope to expand its global trade footprint notwithstanding the impact of US tariffs, the report says. 

The RMB report is an in-depth analysis of Africa’s top investment destinations, with deeper dives into 31 nations collectively making up 90% of GDP and 83% of population. 

South Africa’s untapped export estimate relates to goods and services already selling into overseas markets, and not to potential new products and /or markets that may take many years to develop, the report says.

The RMB estimates are based on three key factors: supply capacity, demand, and ease of trade.  

“Given the current export capacity, global import demand, and market access conditions, South Africa has the potential to add US$75bn to its total annual exports in 2029,” the report says. 

The report also differentiates between potential export expansion to the US market, and to other markets, with the huge majority of potential expansion lying outside the US – a positive sign in the context of the current trade wars.

“Despite a worldwide focus on exports to the US, the bulk of export potential for the 31 African nations in this study lies outside of the US.

This provides further impetus for exporting businesses seeking greater diversification. A wider array of export destinations that respond in different ways to geopolitical and economic movements provides a portfolio effect for exporters, cushioning the impact of such changes,” RMB says.